Will Sydney’s Property Market Pick Up This Summer? What the Forecasters Say

Sydney could have a busier February without having a better property market. More homes coming up for sale would give buyers more choice. It wouldn’t, on its own, mean prices had stopped falling or that buyers could borrow more.

That distinction matters heading into summer 2026–27. After the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November, we looked at what three forecasters are actually saying. None of the updates below gives buyers a date to circle for a Sydney rebound. They are published views from Cotality, CommBank and Westpac, not Parker Hadley price predictions.

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How quiet is the Sydney market going into summer?

Cotality’s November Home Value Index put Sydney dwelling values down 1.6% in October and 4.7% over the three months to October. It estimated about 30% fewer Sydney sales over those three months than in the same period a year earlier. The figures describe the market before the November rate rise, not its aftermath.

There’s a useful wrinkle in the same report. Across the capitals, the total number of homes advertised rose even though fresh listings were running well below average. Homes taking longer to sell can make a search feed look busier without many new options appearing. That’s why it’s worth separating properties you haven’t seen before from ones you’ve already ruled out.

What the forecasters say about a recovery

Cotality: lower sales and values for now

In its 3 November response to the rate rise, Cotality expected housing values and turnover to keep trending lower. It said rate cuts might be needed to support a broad recovery and saw them as unlikely before the second half of 2027. That’s a national assessment, not a call that every Sydney suburb must fall until a particular month, or that recovery is guaranteed when cuts begin.

CommBank: a deeper Sydney downturn than it previously expected

CommBank’s November update, based on analysis by senior economist Trent Saunders, puts Sydney’s potential decline at about 16% from peak to trough, compared with about 13% in its September forecast. Its national outlook is for an 8% fall across 2026 and a further 3% in 2027, on the assumption that the cash rate peaks at 4.85%.

The Sydney number measures the whole move from the previous high to the projected low. It is not a prediction of a further 16% fall from today, a December-to-February forecast or a discount to apply to a particular asking price. The 2027 figure, meanwhile, is national, not a Sydney estimate.

Westpac: the next move isn’t a given

Westpac’s September outlook envisaged a national price recovery in 2027 as rates eased, with cuts pencilled in from August. That earlier view predated both the September and November rate rises and assumed a lower cash rate than today’s. It wasn’t a forecast of a summer rebound.

In its 6 November update, Westpac’s economists described another hike in February as a risk rather than their base case. That is a view on the next possible rate move, not a reaffirmation of the September housing numbers. Even if the RBA pauses, borrowers would still be dealing with the effects of the increases already delivered.

What would a genuine pick-up look like?

First ask what has picked up. Listings tell you what’s available. Completed sales tell you whether buyers and sellers are agreeing on a price. Comparable sale prices tell you whether buyers are actually paying more for similar homes. The three don’t have to move together.

• More choice, similar prices: Fresh listings appear, but similar homes still sell for roughly what they did before. That’s a better shortlist, not necessarily a recovery.
• More deals getting done: Several comparable homes sell instead of lingering or being withdrawn. That’s a more useful sign of returning activity than one busy open home.
• Stronger prices across comparable sales: Similar properties repeatedly sell for more, without the result being explained by a better street, bigger block or better condition. That’s stronger evidence of a price shift than one standout auction.

Watch those signals across several campaigns in your price bracket. A single December or January weekend can have too few comparable results to tell you much. If you’re looking at two-bedroom terraces in Rozelle, a run of waterfront sales in Balmain won’t tell you what your shortlist is doing.

Should you wait for Sydney property to recover before buying?

Waiting can make sense if you need to build your deposit, confirm finance or see more suitable homes. Those are reasons you can act on. Waiting for the whole market to look healthier is a different decision: you might get more choice, but you might also find more buyers looking at the same homes.

If a serious option turns up this summer, start with recent comparable sales and a walk-away price you can carry at today’s repayments. Don’t make the purchase depend on a rate cut or a rebound by a particular date. Our November rate-rise guide covers what to recheck with your broker or lender, and the Peninsula & Bays Property Pulse gives the local October context. If you’ve already found a home and want help testing the price and managing the offer, see our Negotiation & Support service.

Outlooks are based on the linked releases through 6 November 2026 and may change. Observed property-market figures are from Cotality; forecasts are attributed to their publishers. This article is general information, not personal financial or credit advice.